RTP and Volatility Explained, With a Worked Example
RTP, or return to player, is the share of all money staked that a pokie is designed to pay back over its lifetime. Volatility describes how that money is spread between small, frequent wins and large, rare ones. Neither figure tells you what will happen in a session, and no strategy turns a game with a house edge into one that pays you over time.
What does RTP mean on a pokie?
RTP means the percentage of total stakes a pokie is designed to return as prizes across a very large number of plays. The Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission describes it as what a machine is designed to return over its lifetime and says it does not apply to a single player or session. The UK Gambling Commission makes the same point: the figure is an average over a significant number of plays, not what happens each time.
A 96% RTP does not mean you get $96 back from $100. It means that across a huge number of spins by all players, about 96 cents of every dollar staked is returned, and 4 cents is kept.
What is the house edge on a pokie?
The house edge is 100% minus the RTP, which makes it 4% on a 96% game. It applies to every dollar staked, including money you won earlier and staked again. That recycling is why a small percentage can consume a whole balance. Queensland's government puts it directly: the odds always favour the house.
| Jurisdiction (land-based machines) | Published return | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Victoria | Minimum RTP generally around 85% or higher | VGCCC |
| Queensland | 85% to 92% on average over the life of the machine | Queensland Government |
Those figures cover pokies in Australian venues, which state and territory regulators oversee. Figures published for online games come from the game's publisher, and an offshore site offering them is not regulated in Australia.
How do you work out expected loss from RTP?
Expected loss equals total stakes multiplied by the house edge. Here is a worked example using made-up round numbers for a pokie with a 96% RTP.
| Input or result | Value | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Stake per spin | $1.00 | Chosen for the example |
| Spin speed | 5 seconds per spin | Chosen for the example |
| Spins in one hour | 720 spins | 3,600 seconds ÷ 5 |
| Turnover in one hour | $720 | 720 × $1.00 |
| House edge | 4% | 100% − 96% |
| Expected loss in one hour | $28.80 | $720 × 4% |
| Expected loss over 5 hours | $144 | $28.80 × 5 |
The $28.80 is an average, so actual hours land far above and below it. The useful lesson is that spin speed and stake size drive how much money passes through the game, and the edge applies to all of it.
What is volatility on a pokie?
Volatility, also called variance, is how widely results swing around the average. Two pokies can have the same RTP and feel completely different. The two simplified games below both return 96%, at a stake of $1 a spin.
| Attribute | Game A (low volatility) | Game B (high volatility) |
|---|---|---|
| Prize per win | $2 | $96 |
| Chance of a win per spin | 48% | 1% |
| RTP | 96% | 96% |
| Chance of no win in 100 spins | Close to 0% | 36.6% |
| Standard deviation per spin | $1.00 | $9.55 |
Real pokies have many prize levels, but the principle holds. In Game B, more than a third of 100-spin runs would pay nothing at all, losing the full $100. A few would land well ahead for a while, and those runs are how high-volatility games get their reputation. The expected loss on both games is the same $4 per 100 spins.
How many spins does it take for RTP to show up?
RTP takes a very large number of spins to show up, and far more on a volatile game. The table uses Game B and shows one standard deviation either side of 96%, the range that typically catches about two-thirds of results.
| Spins played | Typical range of measured RTP (Game B) |
|---|---|
| 100 spins | 0.5% to 191.5% |
| 10,000 spins | 86.45% to 105.55% |
| 1,000,000 spins | 95.05% to 96.96% |
A single player's evening sits at the top of that table, where the figure tells you almost nothing about the result.
Can any strategy beat the house edge on pokies?
No strategy beats the house edge on a pokie, because each spin is independent of the last. Victoria's regulator lists "the machine is due for a win" among common myths, and Queensland's government says outcomes are not influenced by when a machine last paid, by bet size, or by how long someone has played. Raising your stake after a loss doesn't change the odds on the next spin. It only moves more money through the game, and it can turn a small loss into a large one.
Choosing a game with a higher RTP lowers the expected cost per dollar staked, and that is all it does. It doesn't make the game profitable. Pokies are not a way to earn an income or to win back money you have lost, and setting a limit before you start matters more than any game selection. For confidential support, call Gambling Help Online on 1800 858 858 at any hour.
Written by the Australian Online Pokies Hub Editorial Team.